American League
Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White SoxThe White Sox will come into this series with the momentum of winning three elimination games against three different teams in three days. They also come in as the only team where the majority of their own city will not be focused on them, but instead on the other team in town. With that being said I think it is important for them to keep the momentum up and get off to a quick start tomorrow in Tampa. The pitching staff is going to be the Sox keeping that momentum, but what could lead to their demise as well. They will be throwing Javier Vazquez in game 1, a guy that pitched to a 4.67 ERA and has his own manger tell the world he is not a big game pitcher. I have been saying all year that the Sox pitching is not going to hold up, and while they have proven me wrong so far I believe it will finally catch up to them. Another story for the White Sox will be the two future Hall of Famers in Thome and Griffey making one final run at a World Series. Both players were the stars of the show in yesterday's win over the Twins and will look to continue that heading into Tampa.
The only problem is the Rays will have something to say about that playing in their own park. I know that they may not sell out the place and there is actually a catwalk in play, but this team was dominant at the Trop in 08 winning a major league high 57 games at home. Couple the home dominance with a very strong top 3 in the rotation and you have a recipe for winning. They one question mark I have heading into October is the bullpen. With Troy Percival being banged up most of the second half, the Rays went with Dan Wheeler as their closer. While Wheeler had been very good as the setup man his performance as closer has been shaky at best. This would scare me in October if I were a Ray fan especially with the three other veteran teams with dominant bullpens in the AL.
The outcome of this series is going to come down to pitching, as most do. The Rays have a very strong staff and while most worry about their inexperience, I believe this team is well managed and that along with the home field advantage will be too much for the White Sox to handle.
Prediction: Rays in 4
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Boston Red Sox
It really does not get any better than this as maybe the two best teams in Baseball will meet in the other ALDS series. The Sox have dominated the Angels in the post-season twice in the last 4 years, but the Angels have dominated the Sox so far in 2008 winning 8 of their 9 meetings.
The thing that is troubling to me is how long it has been since the Angels have played meaningful Baseball. I know that might not mean anything at the end of the day because this is a veteran club with a great manager, but it could cause a small let down in a short series. Other than that this team is absolutely stacked. The top 3 on the staff is as dominant as it gets and the lineup is put together with perfect balance. Of course what makes the Angels so dominant is the strength of the pen. If they have a lead going into the 8th inning pack your bags and get read for the next game. Scott Shields and K Rod are as unhittable as it gets at the back of the pen and Darren Oliver and Jose Arredondo have been very good in the middle innings. If they get off to a quick lead and get solid starting pitching they are almost impossible to beat.
The key for the Sox will be the health of Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett. Lowell adds another right handed RBI bat in the lineup and takes some of the pressure off JD Drew who has disappeared in the second half. Even without Lowell this lineup is very strong. Ellsbury has proved to be a menace on the base paths and Papi and Youk are as good as it gets driving in runs in big spots. Of course I cannot leave out the play of second basemen Dustin Pedroia. In my mind Pedroia is the MVP of the AL and has already proven he can produce in October.
Even with the strength of the lineup however, none of that will matter if Josh Beckett is still bothered by his lingering injuries. Beckett has been the most dominant post season pitcher of this generation and if he is unable to go, or not effective the Sox are going to struggle to get out of Anaheim.
This should be a fun one as both lineups are very good and both teams are well managed veteran clubs. My brain tells me to take the Angels because on paper they are the best team in the game, but there is something about this Red Sox team that will not allow me to pick against them. Look for Beckett to be solid and the lineup and Papelbon to carry them to the ALCS.
Prediction: Red Sox in 5
National League
Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee BrewersBesides meeting in the first round of the NL playoffs, these two teams have something else in common as well. They both played very well the last week of the season and showed my Mets what playoff teams do to win a race.
The biggest reason for the Brewers success down the stretch was obviously the work of their big lefty C.C. Sabathia. The last two weeks of the season C.C. pitched 28.2 innings allowing just 6 runs in just 12 days. Going into this series, there is not another pitcher playing that I would want on the mound over Sabathia (Beckett is not 100 percent) and he is dangerous in a 5 game series. The only problem is he has pitched so much on 3 days rest that the Brewers have to be careful he does not break down. He will be going again on short rest in game 2, and if this series goes 5 he will undoubtedly be seen in game 5. The problem will be getting to a game 5 for the rest of the staff.
On the other side there is not a hotter hitter in Baseball than Ryan Howard. He comes into October having the September from god and is one of the best clutch hitters in the game. If the top of the lineup continues to get on base Howard will continue to drive them in and the Phillies will continue to score tons of runs. What will give the Phils problems will be the pitching. I know they are well rested since the Mets didn't even make them work to win the East, but outside of Hamels there are many inconsistencies. Brett Myers had been pitching well since he came back from the minors, but his last two starts were a disaster.
The X factor for the series is Phillies closer Brad Lidge. Lidge has been perfect this year and will continue his dominance into the playoffs. Look for a lot of runs in some of these games and this series will definalely not be lacking in excitement.
Prediction: Phillies in 4
Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers
Hey, Chicago, what do you say
The Cubs are gonna win today.
Go, Cubs, go
Go, Cubs, go
Those might be the words uttered by the other PineRider, but I certainly cannot deal with another title for Sami, epically a Cubs World Series. Yes I will be rooting against the Cubs all October, but it is going to be difficult because this team is very good. Like the Angels in the AL, the Cubs have a well balance team from pitching to defense to the bench. My only concern with them going deep into October is the bullpen. Carlos Marmol has been dominant all year and should continue that in the playoffs. I just am having a hard time having much confidence in Kerry Wood. I know he has been solid all year, but when it comes down a championship team I feel like you need a dominant closer to get you through October.
I am speaking long term, however, about the Cubs. As far as the NLDS I think they can beat the Dodgers if they started only half of their regulars. People are getting excited about this team because of the star power of Joe Torre and Manny Ramirez. I know Manny has had the best second half I probably have ever seen, but after him this does not really look like a playoff roster. Sure the likes of Kemp, Loney and Dewitt are very solid players, but to beat this Cubs team they are a few sluggers short. A lot of people are raving about the staff, but they are a bunch of number 2 or 3 guys missing an ace.
Let us not forget that the Dodgers won 84 games playing in the worst division in Baseball. If they beat the Cubs than I will finally concede that there is a bigger power out there causing curses and hexes over certain things. For now take your money to the bookie and put it on the Cubs.
Prediction: Cubs in 3
Predicting the Rest of October
ALCS- Red Sox over Rays in 6The Sox sluggers will be too much and they will wrap it up before Tampa can get back home for a game 7.
ALCS MVP- David Ortiz
NLCS- Cubs over Phillies in 7
This will prove to be an exciting series with a lot of offense. In the end the Cubs are too good for anyone in the NL and will move to their first World Series since the summer W.W II ended.
NLCS MVP- Derrek Lee
World Series- Red Sox over Cubs in 6
I am going to stick to my original prediction of Sox over Cubs (heard on PineCast Vol. 1). In the end it will be another disappointment for the people from the Windy City and the PineRider from New Jersey.
World Series MVP- Jonathan Papelbon
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