Belichick or Brady?

Since 2001 the question has been tossed around quite a bit. Is Bellichick or Brady more responsible for the success the Patriots have been able to claim? My personal belief was always that Bellichick was the real credit to the dynasty. Do the Patriots win 3 Super Bowls if Trent Dilfer is the quarterback? Probably not, but it's a good bet they don't sniff the Bowl with Bellichick in Cleveland still. Let's not forget, this team didn't win 3 Super Bowls because of their prolific scoring, it was because of their stifling defense and solid running game. Rememeber clock-killin' Corey Dillon? Remember Willie McGinest and Roosevelt Colvin? While the Patriots' most famous season was the season that didn't end in success, their most successful seasons were because of their defense.

I can hear the groans already from people who are convinced that Tom Brady is the greatest thing since the forward pass. Well friends, this is the simple truth. If you swap Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, we're probably talking about the Patriots' four consecutive Super Bowls, and Brady is still probably struggling to make it out of the second round of the playoffs. Don't believe it? Go look at the statistics. Brady has thrown for 4,000 yards twice in his seven years as a starter. Peyton has done it 8 times in the 10 years since he came to the league. Last season was the first time that Brady had ever thrown for 30 touchdowns in a season, Peyton has done it four times. Peyton Manning has been over the 65% watermark for completion percentage every year since 2001, again last season was the first time Brady was ever able to do that.



This isn't supposed to be about Manning and Brady though, (although it's clear who the better quarterback is, honestly, it's not even close) this is about how important Brady is to the Patriots. Everybody is trying to figure out how exactly this team is going to be able to rebound from the loss of their star quarterback. What I was trying to point out above was, when this team had the defensive personnel, Brady was just another quarterback in the system. You could have plugged quite a few guys in there and they would have been able to do the job. Last season, with the defense aging, and question marks surrounding the running game, the Patriots switched things around. Bellichick brought in the receivers to match up to Brady's talents, and we had a record breaking offense on our hands. Bellichick reformatted the system to fit the talents of Brady. People say that is one of the marks of a good coach, one who can adapt the system to the personnel and not vice-versa. Well Bellichick did a great job with it, but now he finds himself in a tight situation. There are VERY few quarterbacks who can do what Tom Brady does in this system. We're talking about a guy who not only has the physical abilities that Brady does, but more importantly has the mental abilities to grasp this playbook and the offense that Bellichick puts out.

That's why Bellichick is sticking with Matt Cassel right now, he's choosing the brain over the physical ability. Cassell knows the playbook and has watched these plays in practice for years. Unfortunately for Bellichick, I don't think Cassell has the physical traits necessary to make this thing work. We don't have a tremendous amount to go by on him except that he hasn't started a game since high school. He also looked a little less than convincing against the Kansas City Chiefs. Cassel may well work out for this team, but I don't think it's going to happen without a re-adjustment back to the running game and a big boost of help from the rest of the team. I'm very interested to see how Randy Moss responds after a few weeks of being underthrown, and Cassel making a few mistakes. He's not exactly famous for his patience with bad quarterbacks. Still, I would expect Bellichick to recognize all of these factors and make a return to the style of play the Patriots used to play. I'd expect a lot more running the ball, short screens, and dump-offs for the offense. Also, the defense really needs to step it up. Without that high-scoring offense to cover their mistakes, there will be a lot of eyes on them. And it will take a few weeks to adjust. By the time we get out of the bye week, we should really know what we're dealing with when it comes to the New England Patriots.

Finally, now that it seems like Mr. Brady's deal with the devil has run its course I did a little bit of research. I found three other who won the MVP and got hurt in the following season (since the strike year in 1982):

Terrell Davis: Won 1998 MVP, played four games in 1999. Never really returned
Rich Gannon: Won 2002 MVP, played four games in 2003. Never returned.
Steve McNair: Won 2003 Co-MVP, played 8 games in 2004. We all know how it ended.



While there is no real correlation between any of those guys and Tom Brady, I just thought it was interesting that people who win the MVP and get hurt the next year, never really return to what they were before. I wanted to try it for other sports, but that's a lot of work.

I don't think the Patriots are going to finish 4-12, but this is a big hit Patriots' fans. I'd expect somewhere near a 10-6 record, and a whole heap of trouble in the playoffs. Steelers, Colts, Jaguars, and Chargers fans are celebrating in the streets this week, while Patriots fans have to wonder if the Brady-Bellichick Dynasty is dead.