Under.. They won't be as bad as they were last season, but they're not any good either. Chad Pennington gives them a much needed presence at quarterback. Pennington is the best quarterback to wear a Dolphins jersey since Dan Marino. (Wow, it's odd writing and reading that sentence) The team does boast a few weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Ronnie Brown comes into the season with a lot of people wondering whether or not his knee will be able to hold. Fortunately for Dolphins fans, it doesn't really matter because Ricky Williams is back in town . From every account out of camp, Ricky has looked tremendous and is looking like the week 1 starter. There isn't anybody I'd categorize as a legitimate receiver threat, but Ted Ginn Jr. and Ernest Wilford are both better than people think, and it will be interesting seeing how they work out. Tony Sporano brought Anthony Fasano with him, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Chad utilize him to the best of his potential. The defense will have a new look this season with Zach Taylor and Jason Taylor shipped out to Dallas and Washington, respectively. New head coach Tony Sporano has added a good amount of the Dallas roster to his new club. Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor should help bolster a defense that finished 23rd overall. Honestly, there isn't a tremendous amount for me to write about this club. They're rebuilding with the best man you can possibly rebuild with, Bill Parcells. They won't go from 1 win to 10 wins right away, but they are definitely heading in the right direction. An excellent two-headed running attack, a smart quarterback, and good coaching and management will lead this team down the right road.
Prediction: 4-12
3. Buffalo Bills (Bodog Over/Under: 7.5)
Under. I'll get more to the fortunes of the team in a minute, but first I want to discuss the real situation in Buffalo. The biggest story in Buffalo this year, will probably be the fact that two of their games will be played in Toronto. I can't help but point out that this move doesn't bode well for Bills' fans. If the team is saying now that Buffalo isn't a lucrative enough market, it's probably just going to go downhill from that point. With the NFL cap becoming less and less restrictive, as more money flows, the teams that play in smaller markets are going to find it very difficult to compete. First, it's hard to bring in the same amount of money that some of the other NFL markets are bringing in. The Bills are already admitting to the fact that Buffalo is not a legitimate professional sports market, and that makes it difficult enough to put the money out there to sign players. On top of that, Buffalo has to go above and beyond what a team like say San Diego, New York, or Dallas would have to pay, because of the undesirable living situation that Buffalo presents. I've had this theory regarding Green Bay for some time now, that once Brett Favre left the club, the team would struggle much the way Buffalo has since their early 90's Super Bowl runs. The Bills are putting the first steps towards leaving the city of Buffalo right now, make no mistake about it. Other teams in similar situations are going to find the same problems, unless the cap situation is re-adjusted. That will at least bring the playing field closer, but will still require Buffalo to make some very astute managerial decisions.
I was really surprised to see the Vegas line as high as 7.5. I really can't understand why. Marshawn Lynch is good, and I don't doubt that, but can a team compete in this league with one real back? His backups are unproven and relatively unknown. Couple that with the questionable talent of Trent Edwards, and I have no clue why Vegas thinks this team can win 7-8 games this year. Sure, they won 7 games last season, but Miami and the New York Jets are better and they have tough games against San Diego and at Jacksonville. They also have a rookie Big-Ten receiver starting opposite Lee Evans. Maybe a Buffalo fan can write in and tell my why this team is supposed to be good, because I just don't see it with this offense.
On the other side of the ball, things just get worse with last year's 31st ranked defense. The team allowed nearly 125 yards per game against the rush, and there is no way that a team can do that and expect to finish with a good record. The presence of Marcus Stroud, from Jacksonville, should help negate opponents' running game, as will the addition of Super Bowl Champion Kawika Mitchell (I had to do it). They will be good additions to one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but will not be enough to lift the Bills into the upper half. Dick Jauron is a solid coach, and he has limited resources to work with. The personnel just isn't there for Jauron & Co.
Prediction: 6-10
2. New York Jets (Bodog Over/Under:8)
J-E-T-S BRETT! BRETT! BRETT! BRETT! Over. This team wasn't as bad as their record last season. The 5-11 finish was a product of a bad quarterback situation, and a bad offensive line. Both of those problems have been addressed, and then some. Alan Faneca and Damien Woody bolster the shaky line, and the Jets also signed some guy from Green Bay to play quarterback. Lavernaeus Coles is a big-time receiver, and Jericho Cotchery has already developed a repoire with Favre. Brett got a lot of mediocre wide outs some big money, Cotchery and Coles actually have talent, so I look forward to seeing what Favre does with them. Thomas Jones's season last year, was completely unrepresentative of what the back is capable of doing. For a better look at what Jones can do with a decent line, take a look at his 3 years with Chicago. Jones made a living averaging over 4 yards per carry every season, and scored a touchdown for every 40 attempts (Jones had 22 touchdowns over his stay in Chicago). He has talent to spare, and I expect big things to come out of the Jets offense, but that's not even the best part of their game.
G's been talking up my ear about this Jets defense for some time now, and I didn't really buy it until this past Saturday's preseason game against the Giants. Now I know better than to put too much stock into a preseason game, but that Jets defense looked real sharp. The linebackers seemed to be on the same page as a secondary that was already top notch. Guys knew when to blitz, when to drop back in cover, and they were fast and athletic. Kris Jenkins looks like an absolute monster on the defensive line, and I would not want to be a running back going against him. Where the Jets lack talent on the ends, they have in spades in the linebacking group. David Harris, Eric Barton, and Calvin Pace are three really good linebackers. They're a versatile group straight out of the New England prototype. The secondary boasts Darelle Revis, a solid corner, and a talented safety in Kerry Rhodes. Expect good things to come from this group. They have the personnel, and Eric Mangini was no fluke in his first year. The guy knows football, he knows how to coach, and this team will be one of the tougher outs in the AFC Playoffs. One last note, if they come out of the gate 0-3, it doesn't mean I'm wrong. They have a tough start to the schedule away to Miami, hosting New England, and away to San Diego. The Jets have the right coaches and leadership, Mr. Favre, to keep the players' heads up and have them fighting to the last week of the season.
Prediction: 10-6
1. New England Patriots (Bodog Over/Under: 12.5)
Over. It's tough to get a read on Bill Bellichick and the Patriots. They were less than 3 minutes away from perfection last year, and I don't care who you are there is going to be a little bit of a hangover after that. As brilliant as Bellichick is, there has to be a few guys on this team who feel that there is an heir of entitlement to the team. Almost like teams have to lay down in front of them and give the game away. I don't think we see a repeat performance of Brady and Moss, I don't think the Patriots win 16 games. In fact, I think this team has seen its climax. That doesn't mean they won't still compete for a Super Bowl, but it's not going to come easy.At some point the defensive issues on this team need to be addressed. They performed well for the first three quarters of last season, but towards the end of the regular season, and into the playoffs there were problems. The defense wore down, and that's natural because they are old. Teddy Bruschi, Junior Seau, Mike Vrabel, and Rodney Harrison are all on the wrong side of 30 at this point. The loss of Asante Samuel might be crippling to this defense. For the last few years I've been a big fan of Samuel, and I see him doing good things in Philadelphia. Ellis Hobbs steps up to take his place, and that is certainly a drop off. However, I also think that this year Adalius Thomas completely takes control of this defense. The best defensive player in football two years ago with 11 sacks from the linebacker spot, had a dropoff in output last season. This year we find out if he was really that good, or if he was benefitting from Ray Lewis and friends.
The offense doesn't have any new weapons to boast of this year, and have lost a target in Donte Stallworth. Welker was terrific last season coming out in the slot position. He was tough to cover because of his speed and size, and he always created a mismatch. This year he will be lining up as the second receiver option for Brady, and I don't think his output is anywhere near his numbers last season. If you ask me, I think Bellichick's gameplan last season was completely to set up this season, a heavy dose of Lawrence Maroney, LaMont Jordan, and Kevin Faulk. This team has nothing to worry about as far as winning the division, and they are still one of the three best teams in football, but I think they take a small step back this year.
Prediction: 13-3
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