NFL Preview: NFC South

The NFC South has seen each of its four teams win the title in each of the last four years. A new division winner each year is a sign of balance, and last year proved to have that balance. That does not necessarily mean there were good teams, but there were 3 teams all with a chance to win the division. This year however will not be the same, as one team is very good and one team is very bad.
Here is how it will play out...

4. Atlanta Falcons (Bodog Over/Under 4.5)
Under. My first online in Madden 09 I was forced to do the random select to choose my team. Each player gets three spins and if you decline a team you cannot go back and choose that them. To make a long story short, on my 3rd spin I got the Falcons and I knew I was in for a long game. Now I am not saying I judge real life sports on video games, but I have to say this team's offense has not one weapon. Arthur Blank hired his 4th coach in just 6 years of ownership, and decided to rebuild by drafting Matt Ryan. The development of Matt Ryan will be the only interesting story in 2008, as this team will just try to survive the season.

If I asked you who played QB for this team last season, there is a good chance that most of you wouldn't know. In 2008 the Falcons will start rookie Matt Ryan and it is going to be a very bumpy year for him. The reason for his struggles will be the lack of help around him. The Falcons began tearing apart the offense in February when they released the 4 time pro bowl TE Alge Crumpler. Crumpler was undoubtedly the biggest weapon in the red zone and pairing a young QB with a good TE is usually a good idea. Instead the Falcons decided to release Alge and make a big splash at the RB position by signing Michael Turner. I think this was one of the worst moves made this off season. I am not saying Turner isn't a quality player, but he has not proven to be an every down back and backing up Ladainian Tomlinson is not exactly a high pressure job. Running in Atlanta Turner is going to see what it is like to run behind a bad offensive line and into a defense that has 8 guys stacked in the box because there is not threat of a pass. Finally, Roddy White emerged last year as a big time WR by catching 83 balls for 1200 yards. The previous year however, White caught just 30 balls for 500 yards and 0 TDs. I am not ready to anoint Roddy White a weapon yet and that leaves NOTHING for rookie QB Matt Ryan.

On defense the Falcons were just as bad last year as they will be this year. Usually when a team is ranked badly against the run, they are better against the pass because teams will run more (or visa versa). For the 2007 Atlanta Falcons the complete opposite was true; they were ranked 26th against the run and 23rd against the pass. Being ranked that low is a recipe for disaster and this year it will not get any better. On the line is one of my favorite players in Grady Jackson and one of my least favorite players in John Abraham. The only problem is Jackson has slimmed down to 360 and is old now and Abraham is the softest player in pro sports. At Linebacker the only one to talk about is Keith Brooking who is moving back to the weak side. This guy is a solid LB no matter what position he is playing and should get 100 tackles again. Moving to the secondary there are corners that I have never heard of. At safety the Falcons will feature two former AFC East guys. The ancient Lawyer Milloy will start on the strong side and former Jet Erik Coleman will play the Free Safety spot. There is not much to talk about with those guys and the defense will be as bad as the offense in 08.

This is as bad as it gets in the NFL this season. The offense will struggle to move the ball and the defense can't stop anyone. The only thing to watch is to make sure Ryan doesn't get hurt and if he can progress on a bad team.


Prediction: 2-14

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bodog Over/Under 8)
Under. Someone get this team a membership to Green Groove Retirement Community because they are OLD. Quarterback Jeff Garcia had a good year leading the Bucs to a division title last year, but he is closer to 40 than he is 35. Going right along with the old folks mode the Bucs have a 37 year old Joey Galloway on one side and a 32 year old Ike Hillard on the other. Things don't get much younger on the other side of the ball as key players Ronde Barber, Derrick Brooks and Kevin Carter are all over 33. If the Bucs want to have another season like 2007 everything must go right with their young players and the veterans must stay healthy and not lose anything in their older ages.

With Garcia, Galloway and Hillard all being born in the 70s, the Bucs do have a weapon on the offensive side of the ball that is still under 30. That player is RB Ernest Graham who played very well once he took the starting job from an injured Cadilliac Willams last season. Graham ran for over 90 yards four out of the 10 games he started and ran for 7 TDs in those games as well. Behind Graham the Bucs have good depth at the RB position. They brought back Warrick Dunn to be the 3rd down back and Michael Bennett will contribute with his speed. Of course Cadilliac Willams is recovering from an injury, and when healthy he has proven to be a beast. Even with the depth at the RB position, the Bucs will be a mediocre offense at best in 2008.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have age as mentioned before, but they also have some talented players looking to have a bounce back year. The number one disappointment last year was LB Cato June. June had over 100 tackles in his first 3 seasons starting with the Colts, but in his first year with Tampa he had just 69 and just 1 interception. June has talent and if he can get back to his 2006 ways he will contribute greatly to this unit. Phillip Buchanon and Chris Hovan are two other veterans who are not the best at their position, but had off years in 2007 and can contribute more in 2008. Of course running the Tampa Cover 2, players can benefit from the system. In 07 the Bucs were #1 in all of Football in pass defense. I am not sure if they will be that good this year, but this is still a solid team against the pass.

Overall the Bucs are counting on a lot of older players. If Garcia and Galloway and Graham (that's a lot of G's) can play as well as they did last year and Cadilliac Williams can contribute this team will not be awful. The defense will benefit from the system and have a solid year, but I think the age factor will catch up with their key players.


Prediction: 7-9

2. Carolina Panthers (Bodog Over/Under 7.5)
Over. The key to the Panthers bouncing back from a disappointing 2007 will be the play of their QB Jake Delhomme. Last season Delhomme came out on fire throwing for 5 TDs and only 1 INT leading the Panthers to a 2-1 record to start the season. The problem came in that 3rd game of the season when Delhomme injured his elbow which eventually led to him having Tommy John surgery. After his injury the Panthers ran out a series of oddities like David Carr, Matt Moore and even a 44 year old Vinny Testaverde at the QB position. If Carolina wants to have a chance at a playoff spot it a must that Delhomme stay healthy.

Leading the way on the offense, with or without Delhomme, is WR Steve Smith. Smith is an absolute stud at the WR spot having caught 27 TDs over the last three seasons. Smith is an explosive player who is one of the best at his position and is a major play maker. Don't forget that he will miss the first 2 games of the year for beating up teammate Ken Lucas in practice. The rest of the receiving corp is deep and is the strength of this offense. Muhsin Muhammad is a solid vet who can be a good possession receiver and compliment to Smith. The Panthers are also counting on 4th year player D.J . Hackett to help in the passing game and maybe take a big step toward being a full time starter. In the backfield DeAngelo Willams did not get many carries in 07(144) but was able to post an impressive 5.0 yards per carry. Williams is a big time talent and should have a break out year in 07. Helping Willams in the backfield will be rookie Jonathan Stewart. Stewart has a big upside and will serve as a nice 2nd back for John Fox's team. This offense will be good as long as Delhomme can stay healthy and DeAngelo Willams proves to be an every down back.

What used to be a very dominant defensive unit in Carolina proved to be the complete opposite in 07. The Panthers were very mediocre ranking 16th in total defense last season. A big reason for this was the play of their star defensive end Julius Peppers. Peppers had the worst season of his career totaling only 2.5 sacks and only 38 tackles. For Carolina to be successful on defense in 08 Peppers must get back to his old ways of 10+ sacks for the year. On the complete opposite end of the spectrum rookie MLB Jon Beason had a hell of a 2007. Beason totaled 104 tackles and 1 INT playing in the middle of the Panthers defense and will be a star for years to come. In the secondary Carolina is very solid with Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas at the Corner positions. This unit will not be as good as it was in the Super Bowl year, but they should have a bounce back year led by Peppers.

Overall the Panthers are going to be better because they will get their QB back. If Smith can keep his head on straight he will lead a solid receiving corp that will get help from DeAngelo Willams and John Stewart running the ball. Look for them to be competitivie in almost every game they play and make a run at a playoff spot.

Prediction: 8-8

1. New Orleans Saints (Bodog Over/Under 8.5)
Over. Ahh...this is like a breath of fresh air writing about a good football team. The Saints are the first legitimate team I have will write about and I am really excited. Coming into 2008 expectations will be high after a somewhat disappointing 2007 season. The Saints went out and made two very big moves in the off season acquiring talent from both NY teams. They helped bolster the offense by adding pass catching TE Jeremy Shockey from the Giants and MLB Jonathan Vilma for the Jets. Shockey will add another weapon to a very powerful offense and Vilma will be the building block for a defense that struggled last year.

The man who will be throwing the ball to Shockey is Drew Brees and boy is he good. Brees has thrown for 4,400 + yards and 54 TDs in his first two seasons as a Saint. There is no reason to believe the 2 time pro bowler will not do the same and be the leader of a high powered offense. To help Drew along the way will be his favorite target Marques Colston. Colston proved all the naysayers wrong by following up an impressive rookie season with an even better 2nd year. Colston will only keep getting better and lead a good WR corp in 2008.

The most important part of the Saints offense in 08 is in the backfield with Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. Each back has something to prove, starting with McAllister coming back from another injury. When healthy McAllister has proven to be a very good every down back who can carry the ground game for an entire season. Deuce will need to be the reliable back who establishes a rhythm with the ground game. Bush on the other hand has a very different role and goal for 08. After a solid rookie season Bush came out in 07 and took a step in the wrong direction. After Deuce went down Bush was counted on to carry the running game, but disappointed by posting a 3.7 YPC and only 4 rushing TDs. Bush needs to prove to the coaches that he can be the game changer they drafted him to be and create the big play for the offense.

The defensive side of the ball is definitely the Achilles heal of the Saints. Getting Vilma in the off season is going to help the run game drastically but this unit still won't be very good. On the line Will Smith is very solid rushing the passer but they will need to get more out of Charles Grant(if he does not end up in jail on murder charges). They made a big move on draft day by trading up to get DT Sedrick Ellis. Ellis could have been a steal at #7 and the Saints expect him to contribute his first year in the league. In the secondary Mike McKenzie is a solid corner and Josh Bullocks was looking to build on a good 2007 season. The problem is Bullocks is on the PUP list recovering from a knee injury and could miss the first 6 games of the season. Bullocks is an important part of the defense considering they do not have many play makers.

Going into the 2008 season the Saints can be very good. Their offense is explosive and will put a ton of points on the board. The only question that remains is will they be able to put enough up to compensate for a weak defense. I think the defense will be improved this season and the offense will carry them to many wins. Look for this team to go deep into the playoffs.


Prediction: 13-3